Sorry that you did not get any answers yet. I think there is some misunderstanding here, so I'll try some explanations quickly, and will do my best to provide more info and examples later, but unfortunately I cannot do it right now.
So, the most important thing here is that when you have a light with 100% brightness and exposure set to 100%, you will get exactly the same result when rendering 200% bright light and 50% exposure, or 50% bright light and 200% exposure.
Now, it is that simple in theory, BUT there might be some factors which are changing that. One of them is MSI. See this for explanation and examples:
https://coronarenderer.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/5000517899So in short, scene exposure/appearance may change depending on if you change exposure BEFORE or AFTER rendering.
Another thing is that 2 of your example renders look the same, but one of them is slightly brighter. I think that this is enough to make the noise level slightly different. Maybe there was a mistake in your EV calculations?